Unlisted share prices in India are not set by an exchange. They are negotiated privately between a buyer and a seller, and the figures published on research portals are indicative reference levels drawn from recent dealer quotes and completed transactions. Fundamental valuation sets the rough boundaries of what a share is worth; supply, demand and expectations about a future listing move the number around inside those boundaries.
Who actually sets the price of an unlisted share
No single party sets it. There is no order book, no continuous auction, no closing price, and no consolidated tape recording every trade in one place. Each transaction is a bilateral negotiation, usually intermediated by a network of dealers who hold inventory and quote to one another.
Sellers are typically employees with vested ESOPs, early investors taking partial exit, family offices rebalancing, or a dealer clearing stock. Buyers are typically individual investors, HNIs and other dealers. The price on any given day is where those two sides are meeting, as seen by whoever publishes the number. A published unlisted price is therefore a report on a market, not an instruction from one.
What an indicative price is
An indicative price is a dated reference level showing roughly where a share has recently changed hands, published for information rather than as a firm offer to deal. It is closer in spirit to a used-car guide price than to an exchange quote.
A carefully constructed level is built from a few inputs:
- Completed transactions known to the desk, with dates and sizes.
- Live two-way quotes among counterparties, and how firm and how large they are.
- Corporate events. A buyback, funding round, bonus issue, split or block deal resets the reference.
- Listed peer moves, which unlisted levels usually follow with a lag.
- Staleness. A name that has not traded for weeks has a weaker price, and an honest publisher says so.
Because those inputs are private and partial, the number carries an inherent margin of error. Treat it as a range with a midpoint, not a decimal-precise fact.
Why two portals quote different prices for the same company
Different portals show different prices because each is reporting a different, incomplete set of trades. There is no central record for anyone to reconcile against.
Four things usually explain a gap. Each desk sees only its own counterparties, so two can both be accurate and still differ. One may show the offer, another the mid, another the bid. The update dates may be weeks apart even though both are labelled current. And the assumed lot size may differ, because small quantities normally price worse than blocks. The practical test is to look for the date and a statement of what the number represents.
Grey market premium is a different thing entirely
Grey market premium, or GMP, is the unofficial extra amount paid outside any regulated venue for an IPO applicant's shares or application forms shortly before a listing. It is a short-lived sentiment reading about one forthcoming listing, not a valuation of the company. The differences that matter:
- What it prices. GMP prices the expected move on listing day. An indicative price prices the share itself, on an ongoing basis.
- Time horizon. GMP exists only around an IPO and disappears once the share lists. Unlisted prices exist for years beforehand, and for companies that never file at all.
- How it settles. Grey market dealings are informal, largely cash-settled and outside the regulated framework, with no recognised recourse if an arrangement is not honoured. A genuine unlisted purchase is a delivery-based off-market transfer into your own demat account.
- Reliability. Grey market volumes are thin, so a small amount of activity or talk can move the number.
Related grey market terms describe deals in the IPO application rather than in the share, which is a separate instrument again. None of it substitutes for reading the offer document once a company files; the IPO calendar shows which companies have filed. The two markets interact ahead of a listing, but the grey market number is the less durable.
The valuation work behind the number
Valuation gives the price a floor and a ceiling; trading flow decides where inside that range the number sits. The methods are the ordinary tools of equity analysis, applied to a company with less disclosure and no daily mark.
Listed peer multiples are the most common approach. Price-to-earnings, price-to-book or enterprise value to EBITDA are taken from comparable listed companies and applied to the unlisted company's figures, with sector-specific measures where they fit better. An illiquidity discount is then applied, because you cannot sell an unlisted share on a screen. Book value per share anchors financial and asset-heavy businesses. Discounted cash flow suits mature companies with predictable cash generation and is far less reliable early-stage, where the inputs are assumptions.
The last primary funding round gives a headline post-money valuation: price per share paid by the newest investor, multiplied by the fully diluted share count. Read this one carefully. Institutional rounds are often in preference shares carrying liquidation preferences and other rights that ordinary shares do not have, so the headline tends to overstate what a plain equity share is worth. Precedent secondary transactions, meaning what other buyers paid for the same share class, are the closer comparison.
On top of the arithmetic sit the judgement calls: illiquidity, uncertainty about whether an exit will exist, thinner information than a listed company provides, minority status with no influence, the lock-in that commonly applies to pre-IPO holdings after a listing, and scarcity when little stock is available. This is where reasonable people disagree most, and the risks page covers what can go wrong.
How to track the valuation of Indian startups before an IPO
You track pre-IPO valuations through primary documents and disclosed events, because there is no live price feed for a private company. Keep a dated file per company and update it when something verifiable happens. Useful sources, roughly in order of reliability:
- Draft and final offer documents. Once a company files a DRHP it publishes the fullest disclosure it has ever made as a private entity: audited financials, shareholding, related-party transactions and risk factors.
- ROC and MCA filings. Annual financial statements, returns of allotment and share capital changes are public record for Indian companies, and they are dated.
- Annual reports of listed shareholders. A listed company or fund holding a private stake periodically restates its carrying value, one of the few independently audited marks available.
- Funding round announcements. Note the amount, price per share if disclosed, share class and resulting fully diluted count.
- Employee buybacks. When a company repurchases vested ESOPs it sets a real transaction price.
- Secondary market indicative levels, always read with their date.
Date-stamp every figure, because a valuation from eighteen months ago is history rather than information, and track the fully diluted share count separately, because dilution changes what one share represents.
What to look for in a source of unlisted prices
A price is only as useful as what its publisher discloses about it. The same checks apply to any provider:
- Is the price dated, and are stale names flagged rather than quietly carried forward?
- Does the publisher call the number indicative and explain what that means?
- Is the firm clear about what it is and is not? Broker, adviser, research analyst, dealer and enquiry desk carry different regulatory status. Vagueness here is a warning sign.
- How does settlement work? Shares should transfer into a demat account in your own name with proper documentation. Any arrangement that keeps shares "with us" on your behalf deserves hard questions.
- Will they quote both ways? A firm that will only sell to you, and never bid when you want out, is telling you something about liquidity.
- What is the coverage trade-off? Broad coverage usually means thinner data on the long tail; a narrow specialist may be deeper on a few names but weak for screening. No source sees everything.
For the record, this site publishes dated indicative levels on 237 unlisted and pre-IPO companies through the unlisted shares screener and runs a buy-and-sell enquiry desk. It is not a broker, an exchange or a registered adviser, and execution and settlement are carried out through separately registered intermediaries.
Why the price you pay will differ from the price you saw
Expect a gap between a published level and your actual transaction price. The causes are ordinary: the bid-offer spread, the size you want against what is available, and whether a willing counterparty exists this week. Ask for a firm quote, valid for a stated period, for your specific quantity, before committing.
FAQ
What is an indicative price and how is it determined? An indicative price is a dated reference level showing approximately where an unlisted share has recently traded. It is not a firm quote and not an exchange price. Desks build it from completed transactions they know of, live two-way quotes from counterparties, the size behind those quotes, recent corporate events and moves in comparable listed companies. Because the data is private and partial, treat it as a range.
What's the difference between grey market premium and indicative price? Grey market premium is the unofficial amount paid outside regulated channels ahead of an IPO listing, and it measures expected listing-day sentiment. It disappears once the share lists and carries no recognised recourse if a deal is not honoured. An indicative price is a reference level for the share itself, exists whether or not an IPO is planned, and relates to transfers settling into your own demat account.
What is a trusted portal for unlisted share market prices? Judge a portal on what it discloses rather than on how confident it sounds. Look for dated prices, an explicit statement that levels are indicative, clarity about whether the firm is a broker, adviser or enquiry desk, settlement of shares into your own demat account with proper documentation, and a willingness to quote both ways. No single source sees the whole market, so cross-check across two or three.
How to track the valuation of Indian startups pre-IPO? Use primary documents rather than headlines. Draft offer documents once filed, ROC and MCA filings, and the annual reports of listed companies holding a stake give filed or audited figures. Funding announcements and employee buyback prices give transaction evidence, though preference share structures can inflate headline valuations. Date-stamp every figure and track the fully diluted share count alongside it.
This guide is published for information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Any prices referred to are indicative over-the-counter reference levels, not exchange quotes, and the price available to you may differ. Unlisted shares are illiquid and carry the risk of loss. Execution and settlement are carried out through separately registered intermediaries. Consider taking independent professional advice before making any decision.